There’s a new box score-only stat formula out there on quarterbacks, everybody. Say hello to the QIR era.
I’ve been sitting on this formula for a few months now, but I wanted to show it off to a much bigger audience. It is called the Quarterback Index Rating, formerly known as the Player Index Rating. I debuted it on SiderySports.com awhile back.
The QIR formula actually originated from basketball, specifically from Europe’s Euroleague and Eurocup leagues where it’s called the Performance Index Rating.
As I began to work on formulas revolving around it for basketball, one idea popped into my head: why not have a similar one for football’s most important position? After a few trial-and-error attempts, I feel like this one worked out the best.
Again, this is just a box score-only statistical formula. It could definitely vary once you turn on the tape to eliminate obvious mistakes on the offensive line, thrown away passes, and kneels as rushing attempts. But once all the games are watched and charted for these top 2015 draft-eligible quarterbacks (coming soon), it will be adjusted for accordingly.
Without further ado, here’s the QIR formula:
(Completions + Passing Yards + Passing Touchdowns + Rushing Yards + Rushing Touchdowns) – (Incomplete Passes + Sacks + Interceptions) / (Pass Attempts + Rushing Attempts) = Answer
When looking at how the draft-eligible 2015 class stacked-up, I came away surprised with the results, but definitely not with the top-three.
As many would’ve predicted, Jameis Winston (Florida State), Marcus Mariota (Oregon) and Bryce Petty (Baylor) stood out from the other five quarterbacks I calculated with them. The other five were Chuckie Keeton (Utah State), Connor Cook (Michigan State), Brett Hundley (UCLA), Kevin Hogan (Stanford) and Sean Mannion (Oregon State).
Comparing this crop to 2014’s, it’s more top-heavy, but there’s definitely a bigger dip in talent, per the QIR formula.
Check out the 2014 quarterback class’ QIR below, headlined by a surprising name with the top score:
As you see above, Zach Mettenberger, who turned out to be a 6th-round pick by the Tennessee Titans — which I think is a steal, even with his injuries and off-the-field history — tallied a QIR of 9.24. That would be only the third-best for the 2015 class, currently. Other big names like Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles tallied scores in the high 8’s, but once the 2015 classes bar graph is shown, you will see how much they separate from this year’s elite.
One thing can be said for 2014’s quarterbacks: consistency throughout, sans Tom Savage (fourth-round pick by the Houston Texans) and Logan Thomas (fourth-round pick by the Arizona Cardinals).
2015 Draft-Eligible Quarterbacks Bar Graph
Before I made this graph, I had no doubts in my mind that Winston, Mariota and Petty would be the top-three, but Winston over Mariota definitely surprised me.
From a scouting perspective, I have Mariota ranked ahead of Winston, but as you can see it’s definitely a razor-thin margin of 0.2.
Another observation that caught me off guard was how low Connor Cook and Chuckie Keeton scored in their respective QIRs. Cook, who’s considered by some draft experts to be the No. 3 quarterback in next year’s class, comes in at 8 in the QIR formula. Keeton, on the other hand, had a season-ending knee injury against BYU midway through the season. But before that injury, though, he was playing on a Heisman-like level.
What’s your thoughts on the QIR formula? Let me know in the comments section below.
