With Rondo’s habit of missing games and the trade rumors increasing in frequency, I would not rank them quite low on a list of teams to watch for fun. The team’s a mess of young guys and debris from rebuild-oriented trades. Without Rondo, there are no signature players and this is a franchise that has had Hall of Famers for decades nearly continuously (the only seasons I could find without Hall of Famers, assuming Pierce and Billups will be, are 2014, 1997, 1996, and 1950.) Boston fans fear a lull like they had in the 90’s, but the front office appears to be competent and they’re committed to building around young guys.
2014 in review
After being a fixture in the playoffs with the Garnett-Pierce core, Boston cut their ties and entered a new era for the franchise. Championship holdover Rondo missed most of the season with an ACL injury, and Doc Rivers was replaced by inventive college coach Brad Stevens. It was an odd season, as they played small with Sullinger or the short Humphries at center with Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford, and Pressey taking over point guard duties from Rajon. Stevens showed his progressive approach and urged big men Sullinger and Olynyk to shoot three’s. They were surprisingly good on defense — not great, of course, but a little below average is surprising for a team given their personnel in the frontcourt. They missed the playoffs for the first time since Rondo’s rookie season, and we’re probably nearing the end of his tenure now.
Changes
Exit: Kris Humphries, Jordan Crawford, Jerryd Bayless, Chris Johnson, Courtney Lee, Joel Anthony, Chris Babb, MarShon Brooks, Keith Bogans, Vander Blue.
Enter: Evan Turner, Marcus Smart, Marcus Thornton, James Young, Tyler Zeller.
Boston will lose some rebounding with Humphries, but the team and its fanbase will not miss him and he didn’t factor into their future. Stevens deserves credit to using Jordan Crawford as a credible point guard for a long stretch. For the coaching staff’s remarkable efforts in alchemy, they traded him for a small cache of low-range picks. Bayless, Lee, and Brooks were all expendable guards, and Boston is replacing them with similar combo guard scorers in Turner, Smart, and Thornton. Evan Turner played for an awful Philly team and couldn’t even help Indiana’s offense, so it’s hard to decipher what the Celtics see in him. Smart is point guard prospect who rated well and he has the strength and athleticism to bully his way to the rim. James Young is liked by some analysts, and if he warrants playing time Boston will probably let him even if their veterans are better.
Player spotlight
As the Garnett-core aged, one of the pleasant finds was Avery Bradley, a svelte guard known for pressing guards full court. Boston was a defensive juggernaut for a while, so it’s noteworthy when a young guy stands out defensively. But part of the reason he dropped in the draft was uncertainty about his position because he’s poor at running an offense. His assist rate in the bar chart is abnormally low for a point guard — he’s worse than the average player. He drives at a median rate, which is usually a strength of point guards, and he has one of the worst teammate points generated from drives (that stat is only among points.)
Bradley’s strength, obviously, is defense, which from advanced all-in-one metrics is sometimes not apparent. Bradley has an unremarkable steal rate, but his eFG% defense is superb and only three point guards had superior percentiles: Bledsoe, Nate Wolters, and Conley. He’s also a great rebounder for his size.
Offensively, he’s mainly involved via jump shots — he’ll pull-up frequently or spot-up, and he has a usable three-point range now. You can see his tendency from the shot chart. He subsists on a lot of two-point jump shots a couple steps inside the line, but he can alternate between “hot” and “cold” in different spots year to year. But he’s always been a poor finisher, and coupled with his passing skills he’s a non-threat as a drive/kick point guard.
I found a good example of his defense in the videos (link) below. Kyrie Irving is a ballhandling wizard who can get by most defenders, but Bradley has the rare ability to crowd him while staying with him step-for-step. He causes a lot of frustration this way, and he’ll forc eturnovers even if they’re not credited to him. Once a guy has tried and failed to penetrate because Bradley is breathing down his neck, he’ll try to pass out under duress and even if the pass is successful the offense is stymied.
Earlier in Bradley’s career, he received some notoriety from all the complains guys had from his pressure defense. One of those guys was Jameer Nelson, who had five turnovers to five points and three assists and was visibly frustrated. Bradley stated that he felt like Nelson didn’t want to bring up the ball anymore. When they met again last season, you can see why (link is also here): Bradley’s a straitjacket and gives credence to the popular sports phrase “suffocating defense.” He gives you little space in which to operate. His steals are low because he doesn’t gamble, but he comes up with a steal it’s usually because he embarrassed and picked your pocket inches from your face.
Defensively, the guy is a pest and should make an all-defense team if people are paying attention. But he has few real point guard skills and can’t run an offense on his own. He’d do best paired with a ball-dominant guard, like Beverley’s role with Harden. Plus he made this incredible shot.
2015 projected
There’s some optimism in Boston if things fall the right way. Smart could win the Rookie of the Year award. Their young big guys could hit more of their three’s and boost an anemic offense. Rondo could have a vintage season and play heavier minutes with the front office declining to trade him until the summer — but unfortunately, he’s already gotten injured and will likely miss the first few games of the season (there are some rumors circulating about how exactly he broke his hand; my money is on a particularly competitive game of connect-four.) Yet that’s par for the course with Rondo and he could still play more minutes than he has in a while.
One player who has surprised me is Olynyk. I’m usually supportive of big men who can shoot, but I was dubious of his ability to play defense. His wingspan of 6′ 10″ would be below average even for a small forward. And he has neither the athleticism nor the strength to make up the ground. But for a rookie, he wasn’t a disaster — a backhanded compliment but even good rookies are poor at defense. Offensively, he’s interesting enough that he could carve out a long career and stretch 4’s are in high demand. We also don’t need to write off his defense yet: defense is partly effort and awareness, knowing where to be and when to drop back or when to foul. It’s good news for Boston, and at the very least he’s an asset.
In projecting Boston last year, I was hesitant about how their defense. In losing Rivers, Garnett, and Pierce, I assumed they’d be be toast — but my ratings saw them at 1.2 points away from the league average. The culprit was Gerald Wallace’s pesky and sticky defensive rating, which carried on even as he aged. I thought about doing a manual adjustment, and I’m glad I didn’t: their defensive projection was right on. They finished at -1 with Wallace playing only a 100 minutes off from what I projected. A guy known for a crazy 2 blocks and 2 steals season, Gerald “Crash” Wallace is still a good defensive player from sheer effort. It’s just unfortunate his prime was spent in Charlotte and few people saw him.
Gerald’s minutes could be usurped by their import, Evan Turner. Some people are still enamored with him as a scorer, and I’ve written about why this is a misguided notion many times. The easy way to refute this claim for Boston fans? His stats and shooting charts are awfully similar to Avery Bradley’s, even their usage rates. At least Evan Turner rebounds like a power forward, and with Humphries gone that’ll be a weakness.
As I’ve repeated ad-nauseam with these cellar-dwellers, winning a few more games is not the goal here, depending on who you talk to. It’s difficult assessing these teams in transition. What do we want, their young players to lose the “right” way? Whatever the right way to play basketball is it doesn’t usually involve losing. Thus, I’m not even sure how I should discuss them. This is a season you’d want to simulate through to the end to reap the rewards without having to watch everyone struggle.
Summary
The major story with Boston is going to remain Rondo until he’s shipped out, which is going to be perilous because most teams are set at point guard. He’s the last tie to their recent championship and a reminder of better days. But Boston has to realize that the whole reason they got their magical 2008 season in the first place was a willingness to part with well-liked players (Al Jefferson, for instance) for the greater good. Smart and Bradley are exciting young players who could be the future, and another season in the lottery won’t guarantee the next Paul Pierce, but at least there’s a great chance at locking up a cheap quality player for a few years. With the cap increasing soon, Boston can lure a prize free agent if the circumstances are right.
Wins: 28
Losses: 54
Conference rank: 13th
League offense rank: 28th
League defense rank: 18th
Edited 10/27/14
