We don’t know when a team’s reign is done until it’s done. That’s not a trivial truism, full of cliches and signifying nothing; it’s a conclusion reached after considering cognitive biases and the history of the league. Memphis may have already peaked when they reached the western conference finals and Marc Gasol won Defensive Player of the Year, but the growing rate from their untapped potential is subsumed by the declining rate from their older players and other natural processes. Old teams, however, have seemingly defied the odds before. We thought the Duncan-Parker-Ginobili core was done several times in the past, only to prove analysts wrong. Dirk and his cohorts on the Mavericks, a roster filled with odd parts and older guys like Kidd and Marion, broke through in 2011. The difference between the Grizzlies and those teams is that they peaked at a higher level early on, built around MVP players. Memphis doesn’t have the same potential, but the core is so intriguing a full rebuild at this point would be hasty.
2014 in review
Memphis fired its coach, citing communication differences and committing to an APBRmetrics philosophy. They remade their bench by stealing a starting caliber center, Koufos, to back-up Gasol, brought in Mike Miller to prop up one of the worst outside shooting teasm in the league, and brought over a guard with experience on of the best European teams in Calathes. Unfortunately, the team regressed, and their elite defense returned to pedestrian levels. Some blame this on Marc Gasol’s injuries, but before he went out with an injury Memphis was barely hanging onto a winning record and if you look at how well Memphis played in games with and without him, they had an adjusted point differential of only 2.8 in games with him. That includes their tough 7 game series against OKC, which helps the rating, and it’s nearly half of what they had the previous season.
The good news is that the Grizzlies offense has been a little better, and that with Marc Gasol in the game their defense was top 5. Memphis survived his absence, actually, with an offensive rating three points better. Memphis’ offense improving without the sweet-passing big man is odd at first, but offenses are usually driven by perimeter players. Whatever happened, they certainly missed him on defense and could not compete. Lastly, the fact that they went 7 games with healthy Oklahoma City would be an encouraging sign, except that all three of their wins were in overtime and they were outscored by an average of 5.4 points per game. Given the Thunder’s strength, that would mean the Grizzlies were just a slightly above average team with a win total in the 45 to 51 win range, and that’s exactly what happened.
Changes
Exit: Mike Miller, Ed Davis, James Johnson, Jerryd Bayless, Darius Morris, Seth Curry.
Enter: Vince Carter, Jordan Adams.
Miller gave them some great shooting and some horrible defense, but he’s meeting an old friend in Cleveland. Ed Davis was in the mix as the back-up power forward and put up respectable box score stats per minute, but it never translated well to the team and Memphis declined his contract. Part of that was a small market minimizing costs, but the team also likes Jon Leuer. James Johnson embodied the physical style of the team as well as anyone with his background in MMA. Yet some problems off-court and the acquisition of Vince Carter made him expendable. Carter’s aged better than anyone expected. His size and shooting ability make him a great role player, and he was so athletic in his prime that after losing a couple steps he’s still quick enough to guard perimeter guys. Jordan Adams had one of the greatest disparities in how conventional scouts rated him and how advanced stats projected him outside of Kyle Anderson, and there is a spot in the rotation for him with Allen getting older and a lack of perimeter scoring. Stokes and Clark will fill out the end of the bench, which hopefully won’t be needed.
Player spotlight
After a successful season in Denver as the starting center, helping them get to 57 wins, Kosta Koufos was stolen by Memphis as their back-up center. It was a wise move in retrospect because they had a starting caliber player to use when Marc got hurt. Offensively, from the bar chart below, he’s a fairly limited center who doesn’t pass, dribble, or take jumpers often. He mainly crashes the boards. He has a surprisingly high usage, however, but it’s counteracted by a low shooting efficiency. But he was around a 60 TS% the two previous seasons — look for his efficiency to recover this year.
Defensively, Kosta looks a lot better. He blocks and rebounds well enough for a center, and his fouls aren’t an issue on the bench. What separates him from others is a high eFG% percentile and great rim protection grades. He’s a bit like Marc Gasol in this regard as a great, smart defensive center without the athleticism that you’d assume. The team’s defensive rating was actually better when Kosta was on the court versus Marc. Some of that is a consequence of who they faced and who they played with, but he’s a plus defender.
Koufos’ shot chart is pretty basic and typical for centers. He’ll occasionally shoot away from the basket, but not often. He has a wide swath of shots around the rim, indicating an active post game and an array of moves. I was tempted to post his 2013 shot chart instead of this one because his shooting percentages were abnormally low last season. Normally he’s above average in the paint.
Kosta’s offensive game is featured in the playlist below (link’s also here) versus the Rockets with Howard. In the first video, he sets a pick and rolls to the rim, and lays the ball in with a nice touch from a few feet out. The second video features a rare jump shot from Koufos as a trailer during a semi-fast break. In the third video you can see his hook shot, which he uses fairly often with good results. The fourth and fifth videos are second-chance points from offensive rebounds. He clears space well inside, fights for position, and has a nice touch for quick put-backs. Kosta sets a quick screen at the three-point line in the sixth video and follows his teammate inside, catching a pass as the defense forgets him and dunking on Howard. His low-post game is legitimate: he gets good position in the last video and hits another hook shot.
Kosta is a good help defender who tends to sink back into the paint to contest shots. I’ve included a playlist from a game against the best offensive team in the league, the Clippers. He frequently blocks shots while barely leaving his feet, which means he stays in position on defense better. In the first two videos he lets Griffin and Jordan grab offensive rebounds, but he immediately blocks their attempts, showing great timing. In the third video, he’s caught defending the impossibly speedy Collison and backpedals quickly while still guarding the rim with both arms up, and manages to block Collison’s shot. In the last video, he reads a pick and roll correctly and stuffs Mullens at the rim. In watching various videos of his defense, he excels at consistently contesting shots and having his arms up, and he’s also aware of who’s driving to the paint and will help protect the rim. But he can also swat a shot into the fourth row like in the last video of this playlist.
Kosta Koufos was an underrated move by Memphis, picking up an above average player at a small price at solidifying a frontcourt and as insurance for Marc Gasol. His defensive metrics are significantly above average, and they trust him enough that they use him to guard players like Griffin when Marc isn’t in the game. Offensively, he’s got great hands, which he uses in pick and rolls and shots from the low-post. He’s usually an efficient scorer, and his percentages should recover this season. In a league where centers are regularly overpaid, $3 million dollars is a bargain and one of the best values around.
2015 projected
Memphis is more or less intact with the same core we’re used to seeing with some flux in the wing positions, which they’ve been trying to fix for years. Thankfully, their offense is more palatable, coinciding with Mike Conley’s development as a point guard. Known as one of the best ball-hawking point guards, he’s a good shooter who runs the pick and roll well. In a fairly balanced conference he’d be an all-star. After Rudy Gay was traded, he increased his role in the offense while maintaining his efficiency, helping the team’s bottomline.
Speaking of offense, the problem with Memphis and their direction going forward is that they think their team’s success is built on a “fearsome” low-post game led by Zach Randolph. They recently gave a two-year, ten million dollar extension to Randolph, but I would argue that he’s an anchor sinking the future development of the team due to his age and how poorly his game translates to team-level production. The Grizzlies win with their defense, and while Zach’s made great strides there that’s not where his value is derived. He’s a scorer who grabs a lot of rebounds, but his shooting efficiency has been way below average the past few years and with the exception of last season his usage isn’t special either. He’s not a great passer, and if you study how individual player value translates to the team-level passing is important. He clogs the lane on offense, and Memphis’ improvement there is due to Conley, not Randolph. That’s not to say he’s a terrible player — his rebounding is a big plus, for one, and Memphis has consistently been great there.
But he’s not worth 10 million dollars, and there’s an opportunity cost in filling out his position for the foreseeable future without reaching for better options. Conley and Gasol are the driving forces of the team, not Randolph, and if they’re looking for a way to improve on their station as a 50-ish win team, it’s there. Power forward is deep, and more valuable players like Frye and Millsap were taken for less money.
The real drag on the team is the mess that still exists on the wings. Prince should not be a full-time starter at this point in his career, and even on a team without many options he’s a reluctant, streaky shooter. Tony Allen is still a destructive defender when healthy, pestering superstars like no other, but his offense is so poor he’s almost unplayable. The team will rely on Pondexter coming back from injury and Vince Carter, but the former is a pretty unremarkable player and the latter is in his late 30’s. Courtney Lee is the other 3/D guy who still has a place in the rotation, but his defense may not even be better than average and he’s not much on offense either. Jordan Adams, their rookie, could make or break Memphis’ current plan. They need an infusion of scoring talent on the wing.
Prince is apparently going to be the starter again, but it’s inexplicable and he’s the last Detroit Piston from 2004 still standing. I collected a list of every active player from championships six years ago or more. If Prince hangs around as the type of role player every coach loves on the bench, he or Tony Parker could be the last man standing from the early 00’s.
2008 Boston Celtics:
Kevin Garnett (BRK)
Paul Pierce (WAS)
Ray Allen (free agent: CLE?)
Rajon Rondo (BOS)
Kendrick Perkins (OKC)
Glen Davis (LAC)
Tony Allen (MEM)
2007 San Antonio Spurs:
Tim Duncan (SAS)
Tony Parker (SAS)
Manu Ginobili (SAS)
Beno Udrih (MEM)
Matt Bonner (SAS)
2006 Miami Heat:
Dwyane Wade (MIA)
Udonis Haslem (MIA)
Dorell Wright (POR)
Earl Barron (PHO)
2005 San Antonio Spurs:
Tim Duncan (SAS)
Tony Parker (SAS)
Manu Ginobili (SAS)
Beno Udrih (MEM)
Nazr Mohammed (CHI)
2004 Detroit Pistons:
Tayshaun Prince (MEM)
2003 San Antonio Spurs:
Tim Duncan (SAS)
Tony Parker (SAS)
Manu Ginobili (SAS)
2002 Los Angeles Lakers:
Kobe Bryant (LAL)
2001 Los Angeles Lakers:
Kobe Bryant (LAL)
2000 Los Angeles Lakers:
Kobe Bryant (LAL)
1999 San Antonio Spurs:
Tim Duncan (SAS)
What’s important to understand about the Grizzlies’ projection is that I, like most other analysts, look at a change in team strength, measured by something like point differential, rather than real wins. Memphis, given their point differential, was a 46 win team last season, not a 50 win team. So a prediction that they’ll drop a a few wins isn’t an admission that I think they’ll be worse. I do think they’ll improve, but not at a rate that would outstrip the change in their expected win total.
Summary
Memphis may have reached their ceiling a couple seasons ago, and as a small market with little in the way of attracting free agents they’ll need some intelligent moves and luck to contend for a title. But Conley and Gasol are extremely buildable pieces, and the cap will rise dramatically soon. They should again be one of the top defensive teams with Gasol back — Mike Miller was flammable on defense last year and as odd as it sounds replacing him with Carter makes a big difference — and their offense is pretty decent now. Now all they need to succeed is the Bucks moving to Seattle, letting Memphis slide into eastern conference where instead of fighting hard for an 8th seed they could relax and snag a 3 seed or better, depending on injuries.
Wins: 47
Losses: 35
Conference rank: 9th
League offense rank: 17th
League defense rank: 5th
Edited 10/27/2014
