NBA predictions are made by crazy people who believe they can actually tell the future, full of twists and turns like injuries and emergent players. As such, even the best set of predictions will be partly awful at the end of the season — who saw Phoenix coming last year? Let’s not forget that.
Here’s one person’s attempt.
Assorted predictions
(Based on what’s most likely, not merit.)
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka
Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker
Most Improved Player: Gordon Hayward
1st team all-NBA:
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
LeBron James
Blake Griffin
Joakim Noah
2nd team all-NBA:
Russell Westbrook
James Harden
Kevin Love
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dwight Howard
3rd team all-NBA:
Tony Parker
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Anthony Davis
Chris Bosh
2015 NBA champion: Cleveland Cavaliers (over the Los Angeles Clippers)
Index of team previews:
Western conference
Los Angeles Lakers
Predicted wins: 26
Rank offense (unadj.): 24
Rank defense (unadj.): 26
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -5.3
Player spotlight: Nick Young
Utah Jazz
Predicted wins: 26
Rank offense (unadj.): 23
Rank defense (unadj.): 29
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -5.3
Player spotlight: Derrick Favors
Sacramento Kings
Predicted wins: 30
Rank offense (unadj.): 21
Rank defense (unadj.): 27
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -3.9
Player spotlight: Jason Thompson
Minnesota Timberwolves
Predicted wins: 31
Rank offense (unadj.): 18
Rank defense (unadj.): 21
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -2.3
Player spotlight: Ricky Rubio
Fun stat/graph: Minnesota’s game-by-game point differential
New Orleans Pelicans
Predicted wins: 41
Rank offense (unadj.): 9
Rank defense (unadj.): 23
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 0.5
Player spotlight: Eric Gordon
Fun stat/graph: individual defensive rebound effect on teams
Denver Nuggets
Predicted wins: 41
Rank offense (unadj.): 11
Rank defense (unadj.): 20
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 0.5
Player spotlight: Timofey Mozgov
Memphis Grizzlies
Predicted wins: 47
Rank offense (unadj.): 17
Rank defense (unadj.): 5
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 2.7
Player spotlight: Kosta Koufos
Fun stat/graph: active players from title teams 1999 to 2008
Houston Rockets
Predicted wins: 48
Rank offense (unadj.): 7
Rank defense (unadj.): 19
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 2.9
Player spotlight: Terrence Jones
Fun stat/graph: high Morey Index players
Dallas Mavericks
Predicted wins: 49
Rank offense (unadj.): 3
Rank defense (unadj.): 22
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 3.0
Player spotlight: Brandan Wright
Fun stat/graph: high volume midrange seasons by percentage
Phoenix Suns
Predicted wins: 49
Rank offense (unadj.): 6
Rank defense (unadj.): 15
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 3.6
Player spotlight: P.J. Tucker
Portland Trail Blazers
Predicted wins: 53
Rank offense (unadj.): 5
Rank defense (unadj.): 14
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 4.7
Player spotlight: Wesley Matthews
Fun stat/graph: 20 win improvements since the merger
Golden State Warriors
Predicted wins: 53
Rank offense (unadj.): 14
Rank defense (unadj.): 2
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 4.8
Player spotlight: Draymond Green
Fun stat/graph: pull-up three-pointers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Predicted wins: 55
Rank offense (unadj.): 4
Rank defense (unadj.): 10
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 5.6
Player spotlight: Reggie Jackson
Fun stat/graph: best defensive rebounding PGs
Los Angeles Clippers
Predicted wins: 57
Rank offense (unadj.): 2
Rank defense (unadj.): 11
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 6.5
Player spotlight: Spencer Hawes
Fun stat/graph: highest pure point ratios
San Antonio Spurs
Predicted wins: 57
Rank offense (unadj.): 8
Rank defense (unadj.): 3
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 6.6
Player spotlight: Patrick Mills
Fun stat/graph: minutes distribution of roster compared to the league average
Eastern conference
Philadelphia 76ers
Predicted wins: 18
Rank offense (unadj.): 30
Rank defense (unadj.): 17
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -9.4
Player spotlight: Hollis Thompson
Milwaukee Bucks
Predicted wins: 25
Rank offense (unadj.): 25
Rank defense (unadj.): 25
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -6.5
Player spotlight: Brandon Knight
Fun stat/graph: players similar to Giannis Antetokounmpo
Boston Celtics
Predicted wins: 28
Rank offense (unadj.): 28
Rank defense (unadj.): 18
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -5.2
Player spotlight: Avery Bradley
Orlando Magic
Predicted wins: 28
Rank offense (unadj.): 29
Rank defense (unadj.): 13
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -5.0
Player spotlight: Tobias Harris
Fun stat/graph: extremely small block totals (by season)
Brooklyn Nets
Predicted wins: 32
Rank offense (unadj.): 15
Rank defense (unadj.): 28
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -3.5
Player spotlight: Mirza Teletovic
New York Knicks
Predicted wins: 35
Rank offense (unadj.): 12
Rank defense (unadj.): 30
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -2.9
Player spotlight: Pablo Prigioni
Fun stat/graph: points added per 100 poss. via efficiency leaders since 2001
Indiana Pacers
Predicted wins: 35
Rank offense (unadj.): 27
Rank defense (unadj.): 9
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -2.7
Player spotlight: George Hill
Fun stat/graph: guards who led their team in RPG
Detroit Pistons
Predicted wins: 36
Rank offense (unadj.): 13
Rank defense (unadj.): 24
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -2.3
Player spotlight: Greg Monroe
Fun stat/graph: worst jump shoots from 10 feet and out since 2001
Charlotte Hornets
Predicted wins: 40
Rank offense (unadj.): 26
Rank defense (unadj.): 4
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -1.0
Player spotlight: Michael-Kidd Gilchrist
Fun stat/graph: low turnover, high usage non 3PT-shooters
Atlanta Hawks
Predicted wins: 41
Rank offense (unadj.): 22
Rank defense (unadj.): 6
Net rating (adj. for SOS): -0.4
Player spotlight: DeMarre Carroll
Fun stat/graph: best 3PT-shooting seasons
Washington Wizards
Predicted wins: 42
Rank offense (unadj.): 20
Rank defense (unadj.): 8
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 0.1
Player spotlight: Marcin Gortat
Fun stat/graph: low Morey Index players
Miami Heat
Predicted wins: 43
Rank offense (unadj.): 19
Rank defense (unadj.): 7
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 0.3
Player spotlight: Josh McRoberts
Fun stat/graph: pure point ratio leaders for big men
Toronto Raptors
Predicted wins: 49
Rank offense (unadj.): 10
Rank defense (unadj.): 12
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 2.2
Player spotlight: Amir Johnson
Chicago Bulls
Predicted wins: 55
Rank offense (unadj.): 16
Rank defense (unadj.): 1
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 4.6
Player spotlight: Taj Gibson
Fun stat/graph: teams by assist opportunities and points created by assists
Cleveland Cavaliers
Predicted wins: 60
Rank offense (unadj.): 1
Rank defense (unadj.): 16
Net rating (adj. for SOS): 7.2
Player spotlight: Dion Waiters
Fun stat/graph: how new super-teams do in their first year
How the win predictions and team ratings are calculated
Win predictions are based on a simple system executed last year with success, which beat most Vegas lines. The difference is that player value is estimated using a blend of several metrics including a statistical plus/minus model I built using a 14-year dataset with an “expanded” box score. (LASSO was used for variable selection and their coefficients. For a basic explanation, it’s ridge-regression but with an additional factor to drop variables appropriately.) The blend was created by doing a retrodiction on past seasons finding the right mix of numbers to predict team strength from the information available in the previous season. There’s also an additional factor to slightly penalize “unclutch” teams from a statistically significant team stat that leads to fewer wins than expected. Finally, a good dose of regression is applied.
