Throughout the big-3 era in Miami, the two-man combination of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade gave us some of the league’s most unforgettable highlights. From full-court alley-oops, to combining to score 70 points against the Indiana Pacers in a must-win Game 4 in the 2012 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. When those two worked in sync, we saw some of the greatest moments of brilliance that the league had ever seen. But those moments of brilliance were far from consistent.
Much more consistent was the two-man combination of LeBron and Chris Bosh. Over the last 3 seasons, LeBron and Bosh logged 5,649 regular season minutes together, significantly more than any other two-player combination for the Heat. In the 2013-2014 season, the LeBron-Bosh combination had the Heat’s 2nd highest eFg% and ORtg. In short, the Heat offense was at it’s best when LeBron and Bosh were on the court together.
The Heat’s 20 most used lineups
So it should come as no surprise that LeBron reached out to Kevin Love last week in an effort to convince the 3-point shooting big man that Cleveland was the right place for him. In many ways, especially on the offensive end of the floor, Love is the player that Bosh slowly became while playing alongside James.
Over the last two years, Bosh added the 3-point shot to his arsenal. Last season, 3-point FGA made up nearly ¼ of his total FGA. As a result, Bosh had the highest Ts% of his career.
3 Point Attempt Rate
While Bosh only recently added the 3-pointer to his game, Love has been taking 3’s since his sophomore season in the NBA. Last year, 3-point attempts made up nearly 36% of his total FGA, almost the exact same rate as Chandler Parsons. Love finished the season 6th overall in 3FGA and 8th in 3FGM.
While Bosh and Love differ in the rate at which they attempt 3’s, their Ts% are nearly identical. Looking at their shot charts it is easy to see why; Bosh is an elite mid-range jump shooter.
He finished the season ranked 6th in Mid-Range FG% for all players who attempted at least two mid-range jump shots per game. Another thing that jumps out is the variety in Bosh’s shot attempts. His hot spots are the left elbow, the right wing 3, and the left corner 3, but he takes shots from everywhere on the court.
Shot Charts via nyloncalculus.com
Love, on the other hand, is very deliberate in where he takes and makes his shots. Almost all of his FGA come from the left side of the court. He had very limited mid-range success, and his finishing at the rim is only slightly above-average.
I assume that part of this had to do with the Timberwolves’ poor spacing last season. Minnesota’s three most used lineups featured at least two unreliable shooters; Ricky Rubio/Nikola Pekovic, Rubio/Gorgui Dieng and Rubio/Dante Cunningham. Good shooters have an enormous effect on a team’s spacing. The likelihood of a player getting decent open mid-range looks increases once you surround him with reliable shooters. Unlike the Timberwolves, the Heat almost never had two players on the court who were inconsistent with their jump shot. This allowed James to attack the basket, while forcing the defense to cover a lot of ground to close out on shooters.
The Heat liked to use Bosh as the screen and pop guy in their HORNS sets. With two elite shooters in the corners, and LeBron coming off of a ball screen, Bosh frequently found himself open from either elbow. Cavaliers head coach, David Blatt, has used HORNS sets with his teams in the past and with Mike Miller, Dion Waiters and James Jones on the roster, it is likely that the Cavs will run similar sets in Cleveland. Should Love join the Cavs before the start of next season, I imagine that Love will want to improve his shot from both elbows, since he will likely get increased opportunities from those spots.
Bosh initiates the high screen out of Horns. Receives the open elbow jumper.
Love will also need to improve his attempt rate from the right side of the floor, as teams will likely key into his tendencies once he is on a title contending team. Teams know where players like to shoot and if Love refuses to diversify the right/left balance, they will force him to the right side.
On the surface, the two players are comparable defensively as well. Both players are fairly poor at protecting the rim. Bosh allowed opponents to shoot 52% at the rim, a number that is below-average for starters at his position. But the poor percentage is dwarfed by Love who allowed opponents to shoot 57% at the rim, a number in line with such rim protectors as Steve Blake and Jameer Nelson. The Timberwolves, as a team, were the worst in the league at protecting the rim and this is an area that will be difficult for Love to improve on. He can improve on his defensive footwork and positioning, but he lacks the size and athleticism to be an elite rim protector.
The more startling differences are found in their respective on court/off court DRtgs. Minnesota’s defense was 0.5 points better per 100 possessions with Love on the court last year. Miami’s was 5.6 points better with Bosh on the court. Neither player is known as a defensive juggernaut, but anyone who watched the Heat over the last few seasons saw that Bosh was an integral part of their very complex defensive scheme. He was smart and able to make fast decisions while also quick enough to show on screens and recover in time to prevent easy layups. Love has shown that he can be a pretty savvy offensive player, so it seems reasonable that he possesses the ability to become a high IQ defensive player. To do so, he will need to improve his lateral quickness on the pick-and-roll and start showing signs of a player that is dedicated to becoming a defensive force. Bosh learned how to become an elite defender by improving his defensive IQ. Love should be able to do the same.
Bosh’s Usg% decreased when he joined the Heat
Finally, looking at their career arcs, Bosh took a huge dip in USG% when he joined the Miami Heat and Love should expect the same, if he heads to Cleveland. Last season, Love was 8th overall in USG% and in his last three seasons, his usage rate was identical to Bosh’s final season in Toronto. Once he teamed up with LeBron, Bosh’s USG% dipped by over 5%. It should also be noted that last season, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters were both in the top-20 in USG%. If Love joins them in Cleveland, something would have to give. It is virtually impossible to have four players on one team in the top-20 in USG%.
Part of what made the Heat so successful was Bosh’s willingness to take a more off of the ball approach and sacrifice some of his offensive talents for the greater good of the team. If Love is traded to Cleveland, perhaps the greatest unknown will be if he is willing to do the same.
