How much impact does a pass-rusher bring on every play? That’s what my mindset was with this new formula: the Adjusted Disruption Rating (ADR).
Why adjusted? Well, I was unable to watch every snap for every pass-rusher I looked at (not all available online), unless it was mentioned on the team’s stats page. The adjusted snap total for all the players examined came out to be 400. For one, I thought 300 was too little and 500+ was too high for all of the prospects studied.
With that out of the way, lets get down to the nitty-gritty. What’s the ADR formula?
For this one, unlike the Quarterback Index Rating (QIR), I used a points system to tally how important a box-score stat was, in my opinion.
Here’s the point totals: solo tackles (1 points), assisted tackles (0.5 points), tackles for loss (1.5 points), sacks (2 points), interceptions (2 points), deflected passes (0.5 points), breakups (0.5 points), quarterback hits (1 point) and forced fumbles (1 point).
Now, I give you the ADR formula: solo tackles + quarterback hits + forced fumbles + (assisted tackles x .5) + (tackles for loss x 1.5) + (sacks x 2) + (interceptions x 2) + (deflected passes x .5) + (breakups x .5) / adjusted snap ratio of 400 x 100.
How did the 2015 draft-eligible class of pass-rushers rank in the ADR formula? Check it out in the bar graph below.
Note: I only looked at my top-8 pure pass-rushers/hybrids. The top defensive tackles and defensive ends will be looked at in a different study, down the road.
Prospects studied: Randy Gregory (Nebraska), Vic Beasley (Clemson), Cedric Reed (Texas), Trey Flowers (Arkansas), Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida), Benardarick McKinley (Mississippi State), Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State) and Mario Edwards Jr. (Florida State).
It’s a near consensus from most draft experts out there that Gregory and Beasley are the top-two pass-rushers right now, but Reed isn’t that far behind — and it shows with his No. 1 ADR out of all of them. But as you see above, those three — based off of box score statistics (ADR is another box score-only stat) are head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Comparing the 2015 class to 2014’s isn’t really close. Khalil Mack graded out with an ADR of 38.25, while Ryan Shazier of Ohio State reeled-in an ADR of over 40, which is incredible. Also, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr and C.J. Mosley pulled in highly impressive numbers, but not on the same level as the aforementioned Mack and Shazier.
2015’s class, meanwhile, only had two even break an ADR over 30 (Gregory and Reed).
What’s your thoughts on the ADR formula and how these pass-rushers ranked? Let me know in the comments section below.