Lost in the shuffle of a competitive playoff race last year was Denver, who were struck with major injuries and limped to the finish line. As impossible as it seems, the West could be even stronger, and Denver, healthier and with some new bodies, could push hard for a final playoff spot. They’ll be running another ensemble squad in the thin air in Colorado, and there’s a good chance they’ll have a winning season, luck (and health) permitting.
2014 in review
Following a 57 win season, analysts stated that it was rare for such a high win team to miss the playoffs the following year — but I was unconvinced. They lost Andre Iguodala, and this was a little before everyone realized how valuable he was, and Gallinari was going to miss extended time due to an ACL injury. They also no longer had George Karl, and for all his faults he’s at least great in the regular season at squeezing out extra wins. Consequently, they won 36 games, thanks to a flailing defense ranked 20th. Injuries killed them as Gallinari wasn’t supposed to miss the entire season and McGee played five total games, but Fournier was better than expected and McGee was hardly a positive force when he actually played. It was a disappointment given their franchise record in wins the previous seasons, but the signs were there, valuing players like Hickson and letting Iguodala go.
Changes
Exit: Evan Fournier, Aaron Brooks, Jordan Hamilton, Andre Miller, Anthony Randolph, Jan Vesely.
Enter: Danilo Gallinari (back from injury), Arron Afflalo, Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris.
Gallinari made his first appearance in over a year with a pre-season game, scoring 17 points in limited minutes. He’s actually going to be the biggest change on the team even though he never left. The Afflalo-Fournier swap seems like more of a headliner and a push for Denver to win now, but based on my analysis in the Orlando preview I would actually rate it as a slight downgrade for Denver. Nurkic is a bruising center from Bosnia who compares to Pekovic and DeMarcus Cousins. The other players Denver lost are all minor except for Andre Miller, but they had trouble fitting him in with Lawson.
Player spotlight
A stray piece in the giant Carmelo Anthony trade, Mozgov has established himself as a quality enter with size in a league that’s shifting to smaller skilled guys. The giant Russian scores fairly often for a player of his type, and he’s efficient thanks to a high foul rate. But he has all the behaviors of a traditional, plodding center: a tiny assist rate, a giant turnover rate, high offensive rebounding, he doesn’t touch the ball often, he never drives, and he only sporadically spots up, or pulls-up, for a jump shot. He’s prototypical in this way. However, he does have some range, and he shot 24 three-pointers last season.
Where Mozgov is useful is on defense. He rates high across the board in all categories with the exception of steals — he is the quintessence of a 7-foot big man, after all. His rim protection values are particularly intriguing because he’s compared to only big men in those two categories. And with his huge frame, it’s difficult to score against him in the paint.
Mozgov’s shot chart is pretty rudimentary. He takes most of his shots inside, and he’s only an infrequent jump shooter. He’s not an above average shooter in the paint, but it doesn’t show his foul rate. You can also see the bleeding edge of his experimental three-point weapon, which only resulted in three makes. But his jumper is inefficient and he doesn’t garner the respect to draw defenders away from the basket.
You can see Mozgov’s shotblocking skills in videos below (link’s also here) against the Golden State Warriors. Three different players — Klay Thompson, Draymond Green ,and Speights — are all denied at the rim. Klay was driving on a semi-fast break and Mozgov comes in from the weakside with two hands, a move too few players use, to block him. Draymond Green was another victim of help defense when Mozgov came in from the weakside. Speights charged the rim, and Timofey showed a good use of verticality. He’s not a player who steps out and stops plays, but he’s a very good defender inside.
Mozgov’s offensive game is shown in the videos below against San Antonio. In the first clip he scores off of an offensive rebound, but he displays a nice hook shot in the process. You see another offensive rebound and then a put-back in the fourth. In the second you get to see a rare made three-pointer, which he takes mainly flat-footed. He uses his strength in the third video as he gets deep post position and scores right under the rim. Finally, Mozgov scores in the pick-and-roll in the last two videos with a lay-up and a nice but slow spin move.
And just for fun, here’s an attempt at a game-winning three versus Memphis:
The Russian big man was coveted by Cleveland over the summer, and it’s apparent why. He’s a good defensive player and a mountain of a guy inside, useful as a big body to throw at centers like Al Jefferson or Howard. He’s extremely limited on offense, but he’s more active than others of his type and he experimented with a three-point shot. His fight for the starting spot against McGee will be key to watch because McGee, known for his mental mistakes, could be the anchor that drags the team down and under a winning record.
2015 projected
Denver will be a better team than last season, but the extent will depend on how the frontcourt rotation is managed: Faried just signed a big contract and his role is the only set in stone; Hickson started last season and played nearly 2000 minutes; JaVale McGee was supposed to be their center of the future and is coming off an injury; the aforementioned Mozgov had a good season and started half the games; Darrell Arthur hit 1100 minutes; Nurkic appears to be deserving of playing time already; and then there are the smallball options, like Wilson Chandler or Gallinari at power forward. It’ll be up to Denver to find the right pecking order, which alone will be the driving force of a handful of their wins or losses.
The player whose minutes they should reduce first is undoubtedly Hickson. Portland replaced him with Robin Lopez and outperformed almost every prediction, improving by 21 wins. He is a poor defender, doesn’t box-out for rebounds, is too small for a center, and gums up the works of an offense. In comparing lineups with the same four guys, the Nuggets were 10 points per 100 possessions worse overall when Hickson was on the court versus Mozgov and 3 points worse versus Faried. If he loses a spot in the main rotation entirely, the team could hit a mid-40’s win total.
One guy who could get the short end of the stick is rookie Jusuf Nurkic, who has already displayed his rebounding prowess, grabbing one every two minutes in pre-season games. He has a long way to climb up in the depth chart, but his translated stats suggest he’s one of the most talented in his draft class, ranking third overall in Kevin Pelton’s ratings. He’s a good low-post player and a pick-and-roll threat, and he’s obviously a proficient rebounder.
Faried is here to stay with Denver due to a 60 million dollar extension and he’ll be following a gold medal run as a starter in the world FIBA championships, but his ceiling is still limited by his defense and his skill-level on offense. I wouldn’t say a working post-game, detailed by Zach Lowe, is what he’ll use to propel the team to the playoffs. He’ll need more discipline on defense and, like he showed with Thibodeau in the summer, his athleticism would need to be harnessed for stopping plays. He’s fairly old for a fourth year guy and undersized power forwards of his type age poorly; he’ll need to improve now.
Coming off of a stress fracture, JaVale McGee is making over ten million a year and will command heavy playing time. The value of that playing time will depend on a host of factors, including whether or not he’s lost any quickness and if his defensive awareness has improved.
The best news, however, is Gallinari’s return. Even a partial season from Gallinari will be a boon for Denver because he provides a mix of skills without taking anything away. This is the centerpiece of the Denver team that outperformed Carmelo’s New York team after the big mid-season trade. He’s a good outside shooter, but he’s at his best driving to the rim where he can get to the line. His defense is surprisingly good too, possibly because of his huge frame — the team will be one of the largest in the league, as long as Nate Robinson isn’t in the game. But he’s been injury-prone and plagued by back problems, which don’t improve as you age.
Finally, there’s the backcourt. As I discussed during the Magic preview, Afflalo is actually a net negative. He was the leading scorer, sure, but at only 18 points a game on one of the worst offenses in the league. His usage was only a couple points above average, and on a better offense it may not even be better than average. His defense is particularly overrated. Denver could get burned by using him as a “stopper,” but with a small backcourt he’ll be thrust into that role anyway.
The team is still Lawson’s, and anyone thinking Afflalo is the new offensive star is misguided. In a fairer league, Lawson would be mentioned as a possible all-star, but in the deep western conference he has to fight the second-tier stars like Dragic and Conley for a spot. He has breathtaking speed, but he’s a skilled player too and if you blink, he’ll hit a three or drive to the rim. Lawson and Gallinari will be the two best players, and they’re just good enough to fight for an 8th-seed.
Summary
Denver has a rotation to pin down and will hope for a healthier season, but they definitely have the talent to finish with a winning record. They’ve been forgotten in the west, even though they’re one year removed from 57 wins, but they’ve had a lot of changes and there’s skepticism. If they overachieve, it won’t be because of Afflalo, but it’ll likely be because of a healthy Gallinari and a strong frontcourt that properly uses Mozgov and reduces Hickson’s minutes. Denver historically has beaten predictions pretty well, maybe due to the inherent advantage of their altitude, and that could happen again this season.
Wins: 41
Losses: 41
Conference rank: 10th
League offense rank: 11th
League defense rank: 20th
Edited 10/27/2014
