I suppose any conversation about Philadelphia’s current season, and not the future, is pointless given the direction they have. This season will be like an endless training camp, rotating low-paid players through and giving extensive time to young guys. But I wouldn’t say they should be totally ignored. Nerlens Noel could be a fly-swatting defensive force, and there’s a chance there will be a breakout player occurring at random.
2014 in review
The start of the 2014 season feels like a long time ago for Philadelphia. They started out 5-4 and Michael-Carter Williams won the Rookie of the Year award in his first two weeks, beginning with 22-12-7-9 (steals) line against the defending champion Miami Heat right out of an Alvin Robertson box score. But reality arrived as the calender switched to 2014 and the magical coach turned back into a pumpkin. From January 6th and on, they were outscored by an impressive 12.5 points per game. That’s on the same level as some of the worst teams ever.
One narrative is that the team fell apart when they traded Hawes, a legitimate rarity as a three-point shooting center, and Evan Turner, a fairly high-scoring wing who inspired an argument among conventional analysts and those who favor more advanced statistics. The trade happened in the middle of their gargantuan 26 game losing streak. Evan Turner was not missed: he was a disappointment in Indiana, but it wasn’t a surprise to anyone in analytics. He scored a decent amount of points per game because he played heavy minutes on a fast-paced team, his field-goal percentage was deceptive because he hit few three’s and didn’t go to the line often, and his long two-pointers were a bit flashy but ineffective. As a relatively older player on draft day, he had less potential than other four-year players. It was a textbook example of the type of guy overrated by conventional analysis.
Philadelphia missed their target — the number one pick in the draft — but they still left with yet another 7-foot big man who had been ranked number one before an injury. Their 19 win season bought them that.
Changes
Exit: Thaddeus Young, James Anderson, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Elliot Williams, Lavoy Allen, Jarvis Varnado, Daniel Orton, Byron Mullens, Lorenzo Brown, Darius Morris, Dewayne Dedmon, Casper Ware, Eric Maynor, James Nunnally, Darius Johnson-Odom, Adonis Thomas
Enter: Nerlens Noel, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved, Joel Embiid, K.J. McDaniels, Travis Outlaw, Drew Gordon, Chris Johnson.
Young was their only high-quality piece left and bridge to the professional NBA world. There’s a massive difference between the Exit and Enter lists, but it’s hard to say who they’ll use for the season other than the obvious guys and they tied with the Kings with the most players used with 23. Mbah a Moute has bounced around the league since he’s a small forward who can’t shoot, but he’s a superb defender and deserves a chance. It’s surprising him to see him on a team like this, but one could surmise they want a good influence in the locker room and a hard-worker to set an example, especially on defense. Shved’s a tall point guard (6′ 6″) and was the other piece going back to Philly in the three-way Kevin Love trade — he shouldn’t tip the scales either way. But they do have Noel, a Blake-Griffin one-year delay due to injury rookie, and Embiid, who may not even play but will still garner attention with his personality.
Player spotlight
After three years at Georgetown, Hollis Thompson projected as a good outside shooter with the requisite body for an NBA small forward despite being undrafted. He capitalized on some of these gifts, shooting 40% on three-pointers while logging nearly 1800 minutes. His stats are summarized below in a bar graph comparing key stats to every NBA player with at least 1000 minutes with percentiles (the higher the number the higher the stat, and 50 is the league median.)
As you can see, he’s an extremely low usage player on a terrible offense — as I found from a recent study, this is bad news in how he’d adjust to a good team — who relies a lot on his jumper, especially from outside the arc. However, he drives a decent amount of the time, his free-throw rate isn’t terrible, and he pulls-up to shoot occasionally. He may not entirely be a one-dimensional spot-up shooter on offense, and he has the athleticism to finish above the rim. But his shot chart definitely suggests 3/D role player, focusing on three-pointers and inside shots.
You can see what his game looks like in the following videos (linked here) against a great defense. He has a quick release he uses to shoot over good defenders, and he does put the ball on the floor although he looks a bit shaky. With his three-point shot, one area of improvement should be his ability to use screens and get open. He’s also part of the blitzkrieg fastbreak force on Philadelphia.
Draft profiles were hesitant to compliment his defense; scouting reports mostly discuss how he could develop into a good defender. If you’re not familiar with FFAPM, it’s an adjusted plus/minus metric breaking down players into the four factors: eFG% (FG% adjusted for three-pointers), turnovers, free throws, and rebounding. What’s labeled eFG% defense, thus, is an attempt to quantify how a player affects the opposing team’s eFG%. Hollis isn’t poor at inducing turnovers or grabbing rebounds, and it wasn’t solely because he was on n awful team since he was ranked dead-last in eFG% defense and a few 76ers rated fairly well.
Bruce Bowen was a fellow undrafted player who carved out a niche, and recently Danny Green found success after four years in college and being drafted second round. Hollis Thompson has a lot of promise as a future 3/D role player, but he’ll need to dedicate himself to defense. Young players, and rookies in particular, are commonly awful on defense and then massively improve as they age — and he’s got a lot of improving to do.
2015 projected
As inevitable as it is that the 76ers will lose an alarming portion of their games, they are not entirely predictable. Young players are on steep learning curves, and they could unearth a diamond in the rough. But they have a guy who could turn out to be the best player of the 2014 draft, and that’s not a backhanded compliment either given how poor the draft class was. Noel’s a nimble shotblocking savant, and he had a full year to recover from an injury. He’s going to leave his feet too much and he could be pushed around in the low-post. But Anthony Davis was called the best defensive prospect in years with a 4.6 blocks and 1.5 steals to only 2.1 fouls per game line as a freshman, but Noel repeated the feat: 4.4 blocks, 2.1 steals, and 2.6 fouls. Only two other college players averaged 4+ blocks and 2+ steals per 40 minutes: Olajuwon and David Robinson. Noel and his vintage haircut give NBA fans a reason to check in with Philadephia on League Pass.
Michael-Carter Williams was basically given the keys to a car no one else needed, and while he wasn’t perfect and fears remain pertaining to his jump shot and decision-making, he did win Rookie of the Year and had a few exciting games. But any enthusiasm should be tempered, as it was a poor rookie class where one top player (the aforementioned Noel) missed the season and several others missed training camp or summer league with injuries. Pelton found that the past 25 out of 26 rookies who led in a combined average of points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game won Rookie of the Year (now 26/27.) But he’s already got as many 7+ steal games (a mere two) as Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace, and Kirilenko. His ball-thievery and speed in the open court mesh well with Philly’s high-pace offense.
Mbah a Moute is serving a curious role here, but the team’s emphasizing defense. He’s been searching for a team who can properly utilizing his defensive skills as a forward, but his wayward shooting has forced him into service as a power forward. He started on a couple Bucks teams who finished 2nd and 4th in defensive rating, respectively, from 2010 to 2011. His defensive knowledge could be a boon for all their young guys. Because of him and Noel on defense, they shouldn’t be entirely terrible.
Besides those noteworthy players, the cast reads as unremarkable to most NBA fans. I highlighted Hollis Thompson because few fans know him well, and their main rotation will probably include Sims, Wrote, Elliott Williams, Davies, McDaniels and his odd contract, and others. They’ll push the pace partly as a modern strategy of trying to score before defenses can set-up, but partly because their half-court offense will be so ugly. A few fans are predicting a single digit win season, but I would caution against such an extreme prediction. If you’re looking for an expected outcome, you stray from the extreme edges and hedge your bet for unexpected improvements. We can all imagine a scenario where injuries knock out a couple competent guys and they struggle to run anything in the offense, repeating a 20+ loss streak and nearing 10 wins, but would it be shocking if Noel had a great rookie season? Or a young guy takes a major leap forward?
Summary
Philadelphia is going to repeat their 2014 season, cycling a large subset of players through their team with a talented and young center on the sidelines while another guy competes for Rookie of the Year. They have completely separated from their last playoff team and are setting new high marks in how to tank. But the future isn’t bleak, and their style hasn’t hampered any camaraderie. Maybe this time they can actually win the 1st overall draft pick.
Wins: 18
Losses: 64
Conference rank: 15th
League offense rank: 30th
League defense rank: 17th
Edited 10/27/14
